{"F": {"ts_code": "301629.SZ", "name": "矽电股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 268.8, "pe_ttm": 443.9924, "pb": 9.536, "dv_ttm": 0.0945, "total_mv": 1121629.824, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.6, 41.4, 44.3, 34.2, 38.3, 36.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.4, 5.5, 5.1, 4.2], "np_series": [null, null, 1.2, 0.9, 0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [11.0, 24.7, 23.5, 15.3, 13.7, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 38.3, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 4.7, "npm_median": 18.1, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.8, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.54, "capex_dep": 3.55, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 25.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -23.0, "rev_yoy": -30.3, "np_yoy": -129.1, "np_vol": 82.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 122.0, "fwd_pe2": 81.4, "fwd_g1": 264.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 2.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["晶圆探针台", 30.0], ["晶粒探针台", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 23.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": -30.9, "ret_120": -4.5, "ret_250": 50.7, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 79.4, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 1, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 444.0 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 122.0 倍,次年 81.4 倍,PEG 2.44。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 3.55 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 444.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 51%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -31% / -4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "矽电股份:PE 比行业中位高 362.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}