{"F": {"ts_code": "301628.SZ", "name": "强达电路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241031", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 107.0, "pe_ttm": 67.3261, "pb": 6.7635, "dv_ttm": 0.4673, "total_mv": 806521.06, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.4, 27.4, 29.5, 31.4, 30.8, 29.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.3, 7.1, 7.9, 9.5], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 0.9, 1.1, 1.2], "roe_series": [21.9, 29.6, 24.8, 19.7, 14.2, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.3, "fix_assets": 7.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.76, "capex_dep": 7.4, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 30.4, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 26.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": 10.0, "rev_yoy": 29.2, "np_yoy": -1.9, "np_vol": 52.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 51.9, "fwd_pe2": 39.3, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 1.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["印制电路板", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 21.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.3, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -4.2, "ret_250": 11.9, "mdd_250": -52.0, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 59, "hard": 71, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 67.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%、固定资产占比 44%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 7.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / -1% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "强达电路:PE 比行业中位高 2.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}