{"F": {"ts_code": "301618.SZ", "name": "长联科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240930", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.49, "pe_ttm": 129.22, "pb": 4.1975, "dv_ttm": 0.4537, "total_mv": 397725.6278, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.3, 27.6, 33.0, 34.9, 33.3, 28.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.4, 5.3, 5.5, 5.7], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [21.5, 14.3, 16.7, 15.2, 9.2, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 33.0, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 14.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.8, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.2, "capex_dep": 4.67, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 23.6, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 34.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": -20.0, "rev_yoy": 18.7, "np_yoy": -40.0, "np_vol": 24.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["水性印花胶浆", 17.0], ["硅胶", 12.0], ["硅基材料", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.2, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -16.7, "ret_120": -10.5, "ret_250": -30.8, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 65.2}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 55, "hard": 41, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 129.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.0%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 4.67 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 129.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -17% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "长联科技:PE 比行业中位高 93.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}