{"F": {"ts_code": "301617.SZ", "name": "博苑新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 49.39, "pe_ttm": 50.2266, "pb": 4.7633, "dv_ttm": 0.514, "total_mv": 858062.348, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 33.8, 35.2, 27.9, 24.8, 20.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 8.0, 10.3, 13.3, 14.6], "np_series": [null, null, 1.8, 1.8, 2.1, 1.7], "roe_series": [24.1, 27.6, 32.7, 25.4, 17.3, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": 17.8, "roe_median": 25.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.8, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.76, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 26.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 22.4, "np_cagr3": -0.8, "rev_yoy": 3.7, "np_yoy": -1.5, "np_vol": 34.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["碘化物", 74.0], ["贸易业务", 9.0], ["特种功能化学品", 9.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 101.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": 4.5, "ret_250": 21.8, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 71.4, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 53, "hard": 44, "bondness": 12}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.2 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "博苑新材:PE 比行业中位高 14.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}