{"F": {"ts_code": "301616.SZ", "name": "浙江华业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.68, "pe_ttm": 15.3417, "pb": 1.9698, "dv_ttm": 2.2422, "total_mv": 285440.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.7, 28.6, 26.6, 25.5, 25.7, 24.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.8, 7.4, 8.9, 9.7], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 0.7, 0.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [9.1, 14.0, 11.0, 8.9, 10.6, 16.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 4.37, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 25.2, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": 34.1, "rev_yoy": -2.1, "np_yoy": -22.6, "np_vol": 49.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["机筒螺杆", 32.0], ["哥林柱", 16.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -29.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": -29.2, "ret_250": -37.8, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 35.6, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 53, "hard": 42, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 15.3 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 4.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.3 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "浙江华业:PE 比行业中位低 35.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点。"]}}