{"F": {"ts_code": "301613.SZ", "name": "新铝时代", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.09, "pe_ttm": 31.6214, "pb": 3.2307, "dv_ttm": 1.9396, "total_mv": 519122.8908, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.8, 18.5, 27.1, 23.5, 23.3, 17.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 14.2, 17.8, 19.1, 30.6], "np_series": [null, null, 1.7, 1.9, 1.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [-0.9, 7.9, 37.6, 30.5, 17.4, 14.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.3, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 7.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 13.4, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 12.3, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.6, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.23, "capex_dep": 5.5, "interest_debt": 15.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 57.0, "debt_mv": 29.1, "payout": 41.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 29.1, "np_cagr3": 11.6, "rev_yoy": 11.0, "np_yoy": -47.0, "np_vol": 494.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电池盒箱体", 29.0], ["电池盒", 29.0], ["其他业务收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -29.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.6, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": -38.5, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 53, "hard": 55, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.6 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 13.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 12.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 5.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -5% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "新铝时代:PE 比行业中位高 1.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}