{"F": {"ts_code": "301611.SZ", "name": "珂玛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 86.92, "pe_ttm": 175.8806, "pb": 20.4244, "dv_ttm": 0.115, "total_mv": 3789712.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.0, 43.0, 42.2, 39.8, 58.5, 51.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.6, 4.8, 8.6, 10.7], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 0.8, 3.1, 2.9], "roe_series": [34.6, 19.5, 15.7, 11.9, 27.6, 17.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.5, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 43.0, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 20.2, "roe_median": 17.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.7, "fix_assets": 10.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 20.03, "capex_dep": 3.29, "interest_debt": 11.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 19.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 32.4, "np_cagr3": 45.8, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": -42.8, "np_vol": 107.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 98.2, "fwd_pe2": 58.9, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 67.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["陶瓷材料", 46.0], ["销售先进陶瓷材料零部件", 46.0], ["表面处理", 2.0], ["提供表面处理服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 1.5, "ret_pivot": 219.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.9, "ret_60": -21.1, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": 49.0, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 82.4, "pos_52w": 47.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 60, "hard": 46, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 175.9 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 3.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 175.9 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 82%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -21% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "珂玛科技:PE 比行业中位高 94.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}