{"F": {"ts_code": "301609.SZ", "name": "山大电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250723", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.26, "pe_ttm": 38.816, "pb": 4.1581, "dv_ttm": 1.2399, "total_mv": 525450.88, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.8, 46.8, 40.2, 42.8, 43.6, 43.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.8, 5.5, 6.6, 7.1], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 1.0, 1.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [23.7, 20.8, 19.1, 22.7, 22.9, 14.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 43.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 18.7, "roe_median": 20.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.2, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.16, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 40.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 13.9, "np_cagr3": 21.4, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": -4.6, "np_vol": 14.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能电网监测业务", 44.0], ["合计特别调整", 29.0], ["故障录波监测装置", 14.0], ["输电线路故障监测装置", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -13.5, "ret_120": -38.2, "ret_250": -34.7, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 52.1, "pos_52w": 55.2}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 59, "hard": 15, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.8 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.0%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -14% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "山大电力:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点。"]}}