{"F": {"ts_code": "301608.SZ", "name": "博实结", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.11, "pe_ttm": 23.2852, "pb": 2.5955, "dv_ttm": 1.4533, "total_mv": 584876.9861, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 25.6, 24.2, 28.5, 23.6, 24.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 12.1, 11.2, 14.0, 17.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 2.3], "roe_series": [21.9, 31.1, 21.0, 19.0, 11.6, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.2, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 19.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.6, "capex_dep": 4.62, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 39.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": 14.2, "rev_yoy": 13.1, "np_yoy": 15.3, "np_vol": 29.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 10.6, "fwd_g1": 68.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["智能车载终端", 18.0], ["智慧出行组件", 10.0], ["智慧出行", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.5, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": 34.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": -8.6, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -26.0, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 44.9, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 48, "hard": 23, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.3 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 4.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.3 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -9% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "博实结:PE 比行业中位低 28.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}