{"F": {"ts_code": "301606.SZ", "name": "绿联科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "品牌消费电子", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.4, "pe_ttm": 27.6639, "pb": 6.6757, "dv_ttm": 1.0453, "total_mv": 2381582.252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.0, 37.1, 37.4, 37.6, 37.4, 37.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 38.4, 48.0, 61.7, 94.9], "np_series": [null, null, 3.3, 3.9, 4.6, 7.0], "roe_series": [69.4, 39.0, 27.7, 25.1, 19.9, 22.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 114.5, "np_ttm": 8.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 37.4, "gm_std": 0.2, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 8.2, "roe_median": 25.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.68, "capex_dep": 5.46, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.7, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 55.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 35.2, "np_cagr3": 29.1, "rev_yoy": 50.9, "np_yoy": 56.9, "np_vol": 17.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 24.0, "fwd_pe2": 18.3, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["充电创意", 20.0], ["智能办公", 11.0], ["音视频类产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.9, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 126.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": -25.2, "ret_250": -14.9, "mdd_250": -42.8, "vol_250": 54.8, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 60, "hard": 2, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.7 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.4%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 5.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.7 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -5% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "绿联科技:PE 比行业中位低 18.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.5个百分点。"]}}