{"F": {"ts_code": "301602.SZ", "name": "超研股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.0, "pe_ttm": 63.7086, "pb": 5.1773, "dv_ttm": 0.9375, "total_mv": 685327.36, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.3, 66.7, 67.7, 69.3, 70.8, 71.5], "rev_series": [3.2, 2.8, 3.4, 3.3, 3.8, 4.1], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 1.3, 1.2, 1.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [17.7, 16.7, 23.4, 17.3, 18.3, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 69.3, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 36.7, "roe_median": 17.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.18, "capex_dep": 1.64, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 7.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 34.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 6.4, "np_cagr3": 5.4, "rev_yoy": -18.9, "np_yoy": -60.4, "np_vol": 27.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["医用超声", 28.0], ["工业超声", 12.0], ["X射线", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -25.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": 10.1, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": -42.9, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 38.5, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 79, "hard": 12, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 63.7 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.3%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.64 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 10% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "超研股份:PE 比行业中位高 25.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}