{"F": {"ts_code": "301598.SZ", "name": "博科测试", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.13, "pe_ttm": 22.5752, "pb": 3.0361, "dv_ttm": 3.3249, "total_mv": 301141.3836, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.1, 46.7, 44.8, 45.0, 44.2, 44.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.6, 4.7, 5.2, 5.6], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.2], "roe_series": [62.3, 41.5, 34.5, 26.1, 14.5, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 44.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 20.5, "roe_median": 26.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.8, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.04, "capex_dep": 12.57, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 52.7, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 70.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 7.0, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": 26.6, "np_vol": 7.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车测试试验系统解决方案", 52.0], ["伺服液压测试系统解决方案", 47.0], ["代理服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.3, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.9, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -16.7, "ret_250": -20.3, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 35.8, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 62, "hard": 6, "bondness": 58}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 3.3%、营收 3 年复合 7.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.8%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 12.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.6 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 0% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "博科测试:PE 比行业中位低 19.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}