{"F": {"ts_code": "301595.SZ", "name": "太力科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.99, "pe_ttm": 96.0746, "pb": 4.4306, "dv_ttm": 1.3517, "total_mv": 400527.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.3, 54.2, 55.9, 59.4, 57.6, 55.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 6.4, 8.4, 10.2, 10.4], "np_series": [null, null, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9, 0.6], "roe_series": [106.8, 23.0, 22.0, 24.3, 19.8, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 55.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 22.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.9, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.43, "capex_dep": 10.07, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 31.3, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 79.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 17.8, "np_cagr3": 1.5, "rev_yoy": 29.6, "np_yoy": -48.8, "np_vol": 33.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 56.3, "fwd_pe2": 34.1, "fwd_g1": 71.0, "fwd_g2": 65.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["功能膜材料", 19.0], ["功能膜材", 19.0], ["表界面材料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -12.8, "ret_120": -42.0, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 52.6, "pos_52w": 54.1}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 68, "hard": 25, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 96.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 56.3 倍,次年 34.1 倍,PEG 0.87。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.9%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 10.07 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 96.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -13% / -42%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "太力科技:PE 比行业中位高 67.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.7个百分点。"]}}