{"F": {"ts_code": "301589.SZ", "name": "诺瓦星云", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 144.0, "pe_ttm": 21.2817, "pb": 3.2579, "dv_ttm": 0.597, "total_mv": 1331251.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.7, 45.4, 46.6, 52.3, 55.2, 57.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 21.7, 30.5, 32.8, 35.1], "np_series": [null, null, 3.1, 6.1, 5.9, 5.9], "roe_series": [13.3, 20.6, 22.9, 33.0, 20.4, 15.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.4, "np_ttm": 6.3, "ocf_ttm": 7.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 52.3, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 20.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.26, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 8.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 35.5, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 22.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 24.0, "rev_yoy": 15.1, "np_yoy": 12.8, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 19.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.2, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["视频处理系统", 29.0], ["LED显示系统", 27.0], ["LED显示控制系统", 27.0], ["基于云的信息发布与管理系统", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -12.0, "ret_pivot": -4.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -17.8, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 64, "hard": 21, "bondness": 17}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 13%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 52.3%,稳定度 91%、ROE 近 5 年中位 20.6%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%,分红率 23%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.54 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.3 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "诺瓦星云:PE 比行业中位低 30.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}