{"F": {"ts_code": "301588.SZ", "name": "美新科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240313", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.19, "pe_ttm": 102.3477, "pb": 3.4896, "dv_ttm": 0.1845, "total_mv": 335088.3282, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.1, 31.4, 29.2, 33.0, 34.4, 30.6], "rev_series": [5.0, 6.9, 7.5, 7.9, 8.3, 8.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [41.8, 32.2, 20.8, 15.5, 8.1, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 15.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.5, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.49, "capex_dep": 4.9, "interest_debt": 9.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 56.8, "debt_mv": 28.4, "payout": 22.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": -28.8, "rev_yoy": 18.9, "np_yoy": 9.7, "np_vol": 29.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["墙板", 19.0], ["户外地板", 16.0], ["合计特别调整", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 55.6, "ret_pivot": 64.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -18.5, "ret_120": 12.2, "ret_250": 34.9, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 73.6, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 52, "hard": 60, "bondness": 38}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 8 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -4.2%,股息率 0.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 95%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(毛利率 31.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 4.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -18% / 12%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "美新科技:PE 比行业中位高 74.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点。"]}}