{"F": {"ts_code": "301585.SZ", "name": "蓝宇股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.96, "pe_ttm": 44.518, "pb": 2.9343, "dv_ttm": 0.7511, "total_mv": 290784.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 39.2, 39.5, 41.2, 37.3, 32.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.1, 3.8, 4.8, 4.9], "np_series": [null, null, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [16.3, 25.4, 23.9, 24.0, 14.5, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -8.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 39.2, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 22.2, "roe_median": 23.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 14.84, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 27.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 15.7, "np_cagr3": -0.6, "rev_yoy": 21.5, "np_yoy": -19.0, "np_vol": 39.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["分散墨水", 27.0], ["其他墨水", 10.0], ["活性墨水", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -9.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": 11.7, "ret_120": -6.7, "ret_250": -21.9, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 29.9, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 61, "hard": 48, "bondness": 23}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 4 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 39.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -8.5%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 89%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(毛利率 39.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 14.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 12% / -7%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "蓝宇股份:PE 比行业中位高 8.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}