{"F": {"ts_code": "301581.SZ", "name": "黄山谷捷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.48, "pe_ttm": 120.5479, "pb": 2.9525, "dv_ttm": 0.9594, "total_mv": 291840.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 21.7, 26.5, 28.7, 22.5, 12.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.4, 7.6, 7.2, 8.5], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 1.6, 1.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [75.1, 39.3, 48.0, 46.5, 15.7, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 16.1, "roe_median": 39.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.7, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.95, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 16.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 44.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": -17.9, "rev_yoy": 35.3, "np_yoy": -81.5, "np_vol": 91.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 51.4, "fwd_pe2": 34.4, "fwd_g1": 135.0, "fwd_g2": 49.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["铜针式散热基板", 31.0], ["其他业务", 16.0], ["其他产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -22.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -18.1, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -40.4, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 60.4}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 42, "hard": 32, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 120.5 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 51.4 倍,次年 34.4 倍,PEG 1.05。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -18% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "黄山谷捷:PE 比行业中位高 90.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点。"]}}