{"F": {"ts_code": "301578.SZ", "name": "辰奕智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "黑色家电", "sw3": "其他黑色家电", "ind": "黑色家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.55, "pe_ttm": 364.3881, "pb": 2.7075, "dv_ttm": 0.8166, "total_mv": 249467.505, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.5, 23.8, 25.8, 27.2, 19.7, 18.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.4, 7.2, 8.7, 8.1], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 0.9, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [50.4, 38.0, 35.0, 14.9, 5.1, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.4, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.71, "capex_dep": 1.84, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 65.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -34.0, "rev_yoy": 12.7, "np_yoy": -78.8, "np_vol": 32.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["家电智能遥控器", 18.0], ["无线遥控器", 12.0], ["家电智能遥控器：无线遥控器", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.2, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_pivot": 1.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.9, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -12.2, "ret_250": -20.5, "mdd_250": -37.0, "vol_250": 35.9, "pos_52w": 77.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 58, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 364.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 364.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 5% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「黑色家电」9 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.7% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 51%。", "辰奕智能:PE 比行业中位高 325.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.6个百分点。"]}}