{"F": {"ts_code": "301577.SZ", "name": "美信科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240124", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.08, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4577, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 252525.436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 29.1, 27.3, 27.6, 22.9, 20.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.9, 4.4, 4.2, 4.1], "np_series": [null, null, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, -0.0], "roe_series": [23.1, 23.3, 19.9, 14.0, 5.4, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.0, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 4.71, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 44.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 35.7, "np_yoy": -280.2, "np_vol": 52.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["信号类磁性元器件", 49.0], ["功率类磁性元器件及其他", 46.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["废料收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -0.7, "ret_pivot": 23.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -37.1, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -14.0, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 50.9, "pos_52w": 53.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 56, "bondness": 48}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 4.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -37% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "美信科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.8个百分点。"]}}