{"F": {"ts_code": "301575.SZ", "name": "艾芬达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "卫浴制品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.68, "pe_ttm": 28.2922, "pb": 2.2861, "dv_ttm": 1.0709, "total_mv": 323730.0508, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.8, 23.1, 25.7, 25.6, 27.3, 26.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.6, 8.3, 10.5, 11.1], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 1.6, 1.2, 1.2], "roe_series": [4.6, 21.8, 23.1, 30.9, 17.6, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 4.8, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 21.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.1, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.29, "capex_dep": 3.75, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 29.6, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 13.3, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": 23.7, "np_yoy": -1.3, "np_vol": 172.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["卫浴毛巾架", 59.0], ["暖通零配件", 37.0], ["其他暖通产品", 3.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -26.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -23.5, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 36.0, "pos_52w": 50.2}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 57, "hard": 55, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.3 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.3 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "艾芬达:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}