{"F": {"ts_code": "301571.SZ", "name": "国科天成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 64.55, "pe_ttm": 48.787, "pb": 5.4638, "dv_ttm": 0.1766, "total_mv": 1158194.1845, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.9, 44.4, 37.5, 40.3, 36.4, 39.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.3, 7.0, 9.6, 11.0], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 1.3, 1.7, 2.0], "roe_series": [22.8, 11.3, 9.3, 10.9, 11.3, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.6, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 39.4, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -11.4, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.1, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.8, "pb_calc": 5.46, "capex_dep": 6.12, "interest_debt": 15.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 46.8, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 9.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 27.7, "np_cagr3": 27.9, "rev_yoy": 64.0, "np_yoy": 49.4, "np_vol": 12.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 34.6, "fwd_pe2": 22.8, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["光电业务", 31.0], ["光电", 31.0], ["信息系统业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 12.1, "ret_pivot": 97.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": 11.0, "ret_250": 22.7, "mdd_250": -30.1, "vol_250": 50.5, "pos_52w": 83.8}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 56, "hard": 24, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.8 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.4%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.4%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 6.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -0% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "国科天成:PE 比行业中位低 30.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}