{"F": {"ts_code": "301568.SZ", "name": "思泰克", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 65.9, "pe_ttm": 56.3279, "pb": 6.5765, "dv_ttm": 0.9045, "total_mv": 680472.856, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.4, 55.4, 51.9, 51.1, 50.1, 50.0], "rev_series": [2.5, 3.6, 3.9, 3.7, 3.5, 4.8], "np_series": [0.8, 1.2, 1.2, 1.0, 0.8, 1.1], "roe_series": [39.6, 43.2, 33.6, 14.4, 7.7, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 51.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 27.0, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.0, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.58, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 14.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 55.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": -1.3, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": 20.2, "np_vol": 30.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 45.1, "fwd_pe2": 32.1, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["锡膏印刷检测设备", 21.0], ["3D锡膏印刷检测设备", 21.0], ["自动光学检测设备", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.0, "ret_prev2_year": -25.0, "ret_ytd": 37.5, "ret_pivot": 170.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": -21.8, "ret_120": 16.7, "ret_250": 33.9, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 65.5, "pos_52w": 53.9}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 65, "hard": 34, "bondness": 38}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 20%,PE TTM 56.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 45.1 倍,PEG 1.13。", "自由现金流 0.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 40%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.1%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.3 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -22% / 17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "思泰克:PE 比行业中位低 21.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点。"]}}