{"F": {"ts_code": "301567.SZ", "name": "贝隆精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.91, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.6572, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 265752.3691, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 33.6, 31.8, 31.2, 24.5, 14.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.5, 3.8, 4.0, 4.0], "np_series": [null, null, 0.6, 0.6, 0.4, -0.1], "roe_series": [25.1, 21.7, 19.4, 15.7, 6.6, -1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 15.3, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.8, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.66, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 18.3, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 29.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.3, "np_yoy": -61.2, "np_vol": 48.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能手机", 38.0], ["非智能手机", 10.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -21.5, "ret_pivot": -6.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": -3.9, "ret_120": -20.5, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 63.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 86, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -4% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "贝隆精密:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.0个百分点。"]}}