{"F": {"ts_code": "301559.SZ", "name": "中集环科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231011", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.09, "pe_ttm": 82.3936, "pb": 1.7419, "dv_ttm": 1.5202, "total_mv": 785400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.9, 14.9, 22.8, 21.2, 16.7, 14.0], "rev_series": [28.4, 41.5, 55.4, 46.6, 33.5, 23.9], "np_series": [2.5, 3.1, 7.1, 6.0, 3.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [13.1, 18.9, 32.7, 16.6, 6.5, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.3, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 16.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.9, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 86.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -24.4, "np_cagr3": -45.8, "rev_yoy": 20.0, "np_yoy": -27.8, "np_vol": 68.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 30.1, "fwd_pe2": 23.2, "fwd_g1": 174.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["标准产品", 24.0], ["标准不锈钢液体罐箱", 24.0], ["特种产品", 13.0], ["特种不锈钢液体罐箱", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.2, "ret_ytd": -16.6, "ret_pivot": -2.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -35.3, "vol_250": 32.0, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 46, "hard": 13, "bondness": 61}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 82.4 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 30.1 倍,次年 23.2 倍,PEG 1.00。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -0% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "中集环科:PE 比行业中位高 31.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}