{"F": {"ts_code": "301557.SZ", "name": "常友科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250304", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 84.91, "pe_ttm": 67.9506, "pb": 5.1328, "dv_ttm": 0.7571, "total_mv": 526705.221, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.9, 24.0, 25.5, 24.7, 25.8, 21.9], "rev_series": [8.6, 6.2, 7.4, 8.7, 10.5, 11.8], "np_series": [1.0, 0.6, 0.9, 0.8, 1.1, 0.9], "roe_series": [45.9, 15.6, 18.0, 14.3, 15.5, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 24.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 10.0, "roe_median": 15.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.13, "capex_dep": 5.02, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 49.5, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": 38.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 0.5, "rev_yoy": 11.4, "np_yoy": -33.0, "np_vol": 29.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["风电机组罩体", 25.0], ["风电轻量化夹芯材料", 23.0], ["其他风电配套产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -8.5, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": 11.2, "ret_250": 55.6, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 51.4, "pos_52w": 78.6}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 49, "hard": 24, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 68.0 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 5.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 56%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -2% / 11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "常友科技:PE 比行业中位高 35.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点。"]}}