{"F": {"ts_code": "301556.SZ", "name": "托普云农", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241017", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 64.94, "pe_ttm": 56.7436, "pb": 5.4955, "dv_ttm": 0.7237, "total_mv": 553808.32, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.0, 53.5, 56.3, 54.6, 51.1, 49.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.8, 4.6, 4.9, 5.1], "np_series": [null, null, 0.9, 1.2, 1.2, 1.1], "roe_series": [22.8, 20.7, 21.9, 21.7, 16.1, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 53.5, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 24.7, "roe_median": 20.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 5.5, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 44.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 4.7, "rev_yoy": -5.4, "np_yoy": -16.9, "np_vol": 14.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 37.2, "fwd_pe2": 28.8, "fwd_g1": 53.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智慧农业项目", 24.0], ["智慧农业", 24.0], ["智能硬件设备收入", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -33.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -30.2, "ret_250": -44.1, "mdd_250": -64.9, "vol_250": 53.3, "pos_52w": 43.6}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 68, "hard": 24, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 56.7 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 53.5%、固定资产占比 15%、资产负债率 18%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.5%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 3% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "托普云农:PE 比行业中位低 27.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}