{"F": {"ts_code": "301552.SZ", "name": "科力装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.0, "pe_ttm": 24.9573, "pb": 2.7146, "dv_ttm": 4.6154, "total_mv": 309400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.9, 41.6, 40.5, 42.7, 39.2, 36.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.1, 4.9, 6.1, 6.8], "np_series": [null, null, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6], "roe_series": [21.0, 23.5, 34.4, 29.4, 17.9, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 40.5, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 25.7, "roe_median": 23.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.4, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 2.71, "capex_dep": 7.22, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 17.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 65.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": 10.1, "rev_yoy": -6.8, "np_yoy": -37.8, "np_vol": 31.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 12.2, "fwd_pe2": 10.6, "fwd_g1": 105.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["风挡玻璃安装组件", 40.0], ["玻璃升降器", 3.0], ["侧窗玻璃升降组件", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.0, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 21.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": -22.1, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 57, "hard": 36, "bondness": 52}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 65%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 18.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.5%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 7.22 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.0 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 1% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "科力装备:PE 比行业中位低 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}