{"F": {"ts_code": "301551.SZ", "name": "无线传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.2, "pe_ttm": 34.9453, "pb": 3.7919, "dv_ttm": 4.5045, "total_mv": 888022.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.7, 60.6, 56.4, 54.1, 53.2, 55.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 6.5, 6.5, 6.1, 6.1], "np_series": [null, null, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.6], "roe_series": [33.7, 26.7, 19.0, 16.3, 12.0, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 55.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 43.9, "roe_median": 16.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.79, "capex_dep": 1.86, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 104.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": -3.5, "rev_yoy": -3.9, "np_yoy": -5.1, "np_vol": 9.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["IPTV基础业务", 30.0], ["IPTV-基础业务", 30.0], ["IPTV增值业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -43.5, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -28.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -28.4, "ret_250": -56.6, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 43.6}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 65, "hard": 3, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 104%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 -2.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.4%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -57%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 7% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "无线传媒:PE 比行业中位低 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.4个百分点。"]}}