{"F": {"ts_code": "301550.SZ", "name": "斯菱智驱", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 81.46, "pe_ttm": 181.3375, "pb": 14.9008, "dv_ttm": 0.3708, "total_mv": 2731750.5102, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 25.3, 26.2, 32.1, 32.5, 32.7], "rev_series": [5.3, 7.1, 7.5, 7.4, 7.7, 7.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.9, 1.2, 1.5, 1.9, 1.7], "roe_series": [15.1, 26.3, 27.1, 14.2, 11.4, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 32.1, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 20.3, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.3, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.9, "capex_dep": 10.8, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 26.8, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 28.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": -22.1, "np_vol": 42.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 119.1, "fwd_pe2": 98.6, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 5.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["制动系统类轴承", 41.0], ["传动系统类轴承", 5.0], ["动力系统类轴承", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 307.1, "ret_prev2_year": 60.4, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 634.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.2, "ret_60": -20.7, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": 60.9, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 77.3, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 56, "hard": 23, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 181.3 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 119.1 倍,次年 98.6 倍,PEG 5.67。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.1%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 10.80 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 181.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -21% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "斯菱智驱:PE 比行业中位高 151.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点。"]}}