{"F": {"ts_code": "301548.SZ", "name": "崇德科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.27, "pe_ttm": 34.5048, "pb": 3.041, "dv_ttm": 1.0803, "total_mv": 480849.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.5, 33.9, 36.4, 38.9, 38.3, 37.4], "rev_series": [3.2, 4.1, 4.5, 5.2, 5.2, 6.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 1.3], "roe_series": [16.5, 20.2, 23.2, 10.8, 7.9, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 37.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 20.2, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.04, "capex_dep": 1.73, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 48.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 14.0, "rev_yoy": 23.2, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 13.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 26.6, "fwd_pe2": 19.6, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["轴承组件", 11.0], ["滑动轴承组件", 11.0], ["轴承总成", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.5, "ret_prev2_year": 5.2, "ret_ytd": 0.7, "ret_pivot": 49.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.8, "ret_60": -22.2, "ret_120": -26.6, "ret_250": 4.3, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 64.2, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 62, "hard": 16, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.5 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%、固定资产占比 10%、资产负债率 15%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.4%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.73 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.5 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -22% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "崇德科技:PE 比行业中位低 16.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点。"]}}