{"F": {"ts_code": "301539.SZ", "name": "宏鑫科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.99, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9205, "dv_ttm": 0.6671, "total_mv": 221852.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.3, 14.6, 14.5, 16.6, 14.9, 11.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 9.6, 9.6, 10.3, 10.7], "np_series": [null, null, 0.7, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [28.5, 25.4, 21.8, 18.0, 8.2, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.0, "fcf_yield": -22.7, "ocf_yield": -3.8, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.9, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 6.43, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 10.6, "debt_ratio": 69.9, "debt_mv": 45.5, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.9, "np_cagr3": -27.5, "rev_yoy": 27.3, "np_yoy": -162.4, "np_vol": 27.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["商用车锻造铝合金车轮", 16.0], ["商用车车轮", 16.0], ["乘用车锻造铝合金车轮", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -27.9, "ret_pivot": -5.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -25.8, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -44.0, "vol_250": 35.4, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 67, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -22.7%(经营现金流/市值 -3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 6.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "宏鑫科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}