{"F": {"ts_code": "301538.SZ", "name": "骏鼎达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.93, "pe_ttm": 25.5817, "pb": 3.0121, "dv_ttm": 0.5235, "total_mv": 449247.68, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.7, 46.0, 43.3, 43.4, 42.8, 40.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.2, 6.4, 8.6, 10.3], "np_series": [null, null, 1.1, 1.4, 1.8, 2.0], "roe_series": [26.8, 28.7, 25.4, 24.2, 18.4, 14.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 43.3, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 21.1, "roe_median": 24.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.5, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.01, "capex_dep": 2.5, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 15.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 25.3, "np_cagr3": 19.5, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": -20.6, "np_vol": 9.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 14.3, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["功能性保护膜系列", 25.0], ["功能性保护套管", 25.0], ["其他主营业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -28.3, "ret_pivot": 30.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -32.1, "ret_120": -31.1, "ret_250": -20.6, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 59.3, "pos_52w": 49.1}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 59, "hard": 47, "bondness": 9}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.6 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.3%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.3%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -32% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "骏鼎达:PE 比行业中位低 15.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}