{"F": {"ts_code": "301533.SZ", "name": "威马农机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "农用机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.01, "pe_ttm": 89.1882, "pb": 2.57, "dv_ttm": 1.0217, "total_mv": 285187.7367, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.8, 15.5, 17.8, 18.3, 17.3, 18.2], "rev_series": [6.4, 7.7, 6.7, 7.9, 9.2, 7.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.3], "roe_series": [24.6, 23.3, 19.4, 9.6, 7.1, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.2, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 4.03, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 20.5, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 49.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": -24.6, "rev_yoy": 17.5, "np_yoy": 10.2, "np_vol": 28.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["山地丘陵农业机械", 37.0], ["其他动力机械", 12.0], ["配件及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.6, "ret_prev2_year": -14.1, "ret_ytd": -27.9, "ret_pivot": 36.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.4, "ret_60": 12.8, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": -29.3, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 50, "hard": 47, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 89.2 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 4.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 89.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 13% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "威马农机:PE 比行业中位高 46.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}