{"F": {"ts_code": "301529.SZ", "name": "福赛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230911", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 107.0, "pe_ttm": 89.3946, "pb": 8.7165, "dv_ttm": 0.1458, "total_mv": 1267134.66, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.2, 31.3, 30.2, 26.7, 25.5, 25.7], "rev_series": [4.6, 6.0, 6.9, 9.5, 13.3, 17.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 1.0, 1.3], "roe_series": [23.6, 23.5, 22.5, 10.0, 7.9, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 26.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.2, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.72, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 38.4, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 24.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 35.5, "np_cagr3": 13.5, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": 14.2, "np_vol": 14.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 62.5, "fwd_pe2": 49.5, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 2.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零部件", 25.0], ["产品", 25.0], ["汽车零部件：功能件", 14.0], ["功能件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 300.1, "ret_prev2_year": -27.6, "ret_ytd": 32.6, "ret_pivot": 414.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 33.5, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": 40.6, "ret_250": 99.5, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 84.0, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 51, "hard": 50, "bondness": 11}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 89.4 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%、固定资产占比 31%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 89.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 100%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 34% / -0% / 41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "福赛科技:PE 比行业中位高 59.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}