{"F": {"ts_code": "301528.SZ", "name": "多浦乐", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.78, "pe_ttm": 76.7291, "pb": 3.3235, "dv_ttm": 0.1267, "total_mv": 527579.89, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [75.9, 76.7, 73.9, 75.9, 71.2, 69.5], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.5, 2.0, 2.0, 1.6, 2.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.9, 0.8, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [29.5, 24.9, 25.9, 8.5, 3.5, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 73.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 39.1, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.1, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": 18.16, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 6.9, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 10.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": -8.0, "rev_yoy": 13.2, "np_yoy": 11.9, "np_vol": 25.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业无损检测设备", 46.0], ["超声换能器", 31.0], ["配套零部件", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.3, "ret_prev2_year": -47.0, "ret_ytd": 25.5, "ret_pivot": 153.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.6, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": 32.3, "ret_250": 42.1, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 58.2, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 77, "hard": 11, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 76.7 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 73.9%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 73.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 18.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -4% / 32%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "多浦乐:PE 比行业中位高 26.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 45.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点。"]}}