{"F": {"ts_code": "301526.SZ", "name": "国际复材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻纤制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.38, "pe_ttm": 146.1062, "pb": 11.3641, "dv_ttm": 0.0758, "total_mv": 9947576.164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 31.1, 28.3, 21.6, 12.6, 18.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 78.9, 71.6, 73.6, 86.6], "np_series": [null, null, 11.4, 5.5, -3.5, 2.7], "roe_series": [10.7, 22.9, 19.6, 7.3, -4.3, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 94.7, "np_ttm": 6.8, "ocf_ttm": 12.7, "fcf_ttm": -13.5, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.5, "fix_assets": 150.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 11.36, "capex_dep": 2.48, "interest_debt": 119.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 62.1, "debt_mv": 12.1, "payout": 22.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -38.0, "rev_yoy": 19.5, "np_yoy": 176.6, "np_vol": 127.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 62.6, "fwd_pe2": 41.0, "fwd_g1": 134.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["玻璃纤维及制品", 95.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.7, "ret_prev2_year": -32.8, "ret_ytd": 277.9, "ret_pivot": 714.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -31.2, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": 119.1, "ret_250": 296.1, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 97.2, "pos_52w": 50.5}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 45, "hard": 100, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 146.1 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%、固定资产占比 62%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 2.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 146.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 296%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 97%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -31% / -0% / 119%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "国际复材:PE 比行业中位高 78.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}