{"F": {"ts_code": "301525.SZ", "name": "儒竞科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "制冷空调设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230830", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.9, "pe_ttm": 105.4635, "pb": 1.5433, "dv_ttm": 0.7539, "total_mv": 500417.956, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.1, 22.3, 23.8, 25.1, 24.3, 24.8], "rev_series": [7.9, 12.9, 16.1, 15.4, 13.0, 12.9], "np_series": [0.3, 1.3, 2.1, 2.2, 1.7, 1.3], "roe_series": [6.6, 22.9, 34.3, 11.4, 5.4, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.5, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 24.3, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.9, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 6.04, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 17.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": -16.0, "rev_yoy": -18.9, "np_yoy": -75.3, "np_vol": 126.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 19.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 444.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["暖通空调及冷冻冷藏设备", 24.0], ["暖通空调", 24.0], ["新能源汽车电机与热管理系统系列", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.2, "ret_prev2_year": -29.1, "ret_ytd": -38.3, "ret_pivot": 15.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.4, "ret_60": -22.5, "ret_120": -40.7, "ret_250": -45.7, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 45.1}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 55, "hard": 27, "bondness": 36}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 105.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 19.4 倍,次年 14.2 倍,PEG 0.54。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 6.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 105.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -22% / -41%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "儒竞科技:PE 比行业中位高 54.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}