{"F": {"ts_code": "301522.SZ", "name": "上大股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.16, "pe_ttm": 84.2867, "pb": 4.4154, "dv_ttm": 0.3152, "total_mv": 861243.2772, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.3, 18.5, 17.0, 16.9, 13.9, 11.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 12.9, 20.3, 25.1, 24.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.1, 1.5, 1.6, 1.0], "roe_series": [2.6, 8.1, 11.3, 14.1, 10.7, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_ttm": -5.2, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": -3.2, "gm_median": 16.9, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 6.7, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 12.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.42, "capex_dep": 3.21, "interest_debt": 10.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 56.2, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": 24.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 23.3, "np_cagr3": -2.1, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": 2.8, "np_vol": 105.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高温及高性能合金", 26.0], ["高性能高温合金材料", 26.0], ["高品质特种不锈钢", 22.0], ["特种不锈钢", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -40.8, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -32.3, "ret_250": -37.5, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 44.3, "pos_52w": 48.3}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 49, "hard": 44, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 84.3 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 -3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 3.21 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -10% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "上大股份:PE 比行业中位高 25.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}