{"F": {"ts_code": "301520.SZ", "name": "万邦医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.66, "pe_ttm": 531.287, "pb": 3.4652, "dv_ttm": 0.3833, "total_mv": 518591.4558, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.8, 52.7, 50.4, 48.9, 39.6, 25.9], "rev_series": [1.4, 2.1, 2.6, 3.4, 3.8, 2.7], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 1.0, 1.1, 0.9, 0.4], "roe_series": [53.5, 42.7, 35.0, 12.0, 5.7, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 48.9, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 31.6, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.2, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 11.1, "pb_calc": 3.47, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.9, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 27.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": -28.3, "rev_yoy": -40.2, "np_yoy": -99.5, "np_vol": 36.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["临床研究服务", 39.0], ["药学研究服务", 5.0], ["自主研发技术成果转化", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.2, "ret_prev2_year": -30.1, "ret_ytd": 97.6, "ret_pivot": 111.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": 122.8, "ret_120": 82.7, "ret_250": 68.6, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 80.4, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 18, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 531.3 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 48.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 531.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 69%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 123% / 83%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "万邦医药:PE 比行业中位高 458.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}