{"F": {"ts_code": "301519.SZ", "name": "舜禹股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.06, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4506, "dv_ttm": 0.8269, "total_mv": 194941.3374, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 32.7, 33.7, 33.2, 33.7, 32.7], "rev_series": [5.3, 6.5, 7.5, 7.0, 6.5, 5.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [18.7, 17.4, 15.2, 6.1, 0.9, -1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.4, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 2.46, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 652.8, "debt_ratio": 54.7, "debt_mv": 63.1, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -8.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -28.4, "np_yoy": -202.5, "np_vol": 114.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["设备销售", 13.0], ["二次供水设备销售", 13.0], ["项目运营", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.1, "ret_prev2_year": -34.2, "ret_ytd": -9.5, "ret_pivot": 9.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -20.8, "ret_250": -17.5, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 76.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 17, "bondness": 69}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.2%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "舜禹股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}