{"F": {"ts_code": "301518.SZ", "name": "长华化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.27, "pe_ttm": 234.893, "pb": 2.1917, "dv_ttm": 1.1004, "total_mv": 353054.4765, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.7, 6.1, 6.9, 8.0, 4.3, 7.5], "rev_series": [18.8, 30.3, 23.1, 27.1, 30.5, 27.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.9, 1.2, 0.6, 1.0], "roe_series": [24.5, 23.7, 19.5, 11.9, 4.1, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -11.0, "fcf_yield": -31.2, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.5, "fix_assets": 22.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.19, "capex_dep": 14.44, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 12.8, "debt_ratio": 55.6, "debt_mv": 34.7, "payout": 40.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": 2.8, "rev_yoy": 29.8, "np_yoy": -199.8, "np_vol": 38.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["普通聚合物多元醇", 21.0], ["POP", 21.0], ["高活性聚合物多元醇", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 125.8, "ret_prev2_year": -30.4, "ret_ytd": -31.2, "ret_pivot": 84.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -16.9, "ret_120": -46.4, "ret_250": -2.3, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 63.2, "pos_52w": 48.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 100, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 62%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 12.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -31.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 14.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 234.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -17% / -46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "长华化学:PE 比行业中位高 199.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.0个百分点。"]}}