{"F": {"ts_code": "301516.SZ", "name": "中远通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.65, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.723, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 467368.3305, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 19.3, 19.4, 18.9, 15.7, 16.1], "rev_series": [9.8, 14.3, 14.4, 11.8, 8.3, 9.4], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.0, 0.7, -0.9, -0.6], "roe_series": [11.2, 13.2, 10.7, 5.4, -6.4, -4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.72, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 22.2, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 58.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -13.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.8, "np_yoy": -0.3, "np_vol": 100.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通信电源系统", 33.0], ["通信电源", 33.0], ["新能源电源", 12.0], ["工控电源", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.2, "ret_ytd": 6.7, "ret_pivot": 15.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 38, "bondness": 44}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 10% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "中远通:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}