{"F": {"ts_code": "301512.SZ", "name": "智信精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.94, "pe_ttm": 109.8838, "pb": 2.2894, "dv_ttm": 0.8657, "total_mv": 231019.0792, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.8, 48.8, 45.6, 36.4, 41.1, 40.8], "rev_series": [4.0, 4.9, 5.5, 6.6, 5.8, 5.4], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 0.8, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [31.0, 26.6, 19.3, 10.3, 4.3, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -3.7, "ocf_yield": -2.7, "gm_median": 41.1, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 12.3, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.4, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.29, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 32.5, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 44.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": -26.8, "rev_yoy": 41.5, "np_yoy": -35.6, "np_vol": 19.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["自动化设备", 15.0], ["自动化线体", 12.0], ["自动化系列", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.0, "ret_prev2_year": -45.3, "ret_ytd": -0.1, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.1, "ret_60": -18.5, "ret_120": -10.3, "ret_250": -7.2, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 45.7, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 56, "hard": 28, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 109.9 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.1%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -18% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "智信精密:PE 比行业中位高 32.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}