{"F": {"ts_code": "301511.SZ", "name": "德福科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 85.05, "pe_ttm": 158.9473, "pb": 12.6847, "dv_ttm": 0.2341, "total_mv": 5360888.61, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.1, 23.2, 16.6, 7.6, 2.1, 7.1], "rev_series": [14.3, 39.9, 63.8, 65.3, 78.1, 124.4], "np_series": [0.2, 4.7, 5.0, 1.3, -2.5, 1.1], "roe_series": [3.2, 36.6, 23.5, 4.0, -5.9, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 163.3, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_ttm": -11.7, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 7.6, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": 0.01, "gm_chg_2022": 6.5, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 73.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 12.68, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 108.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.6, "debt_ratio": 77.5, "debt_mv": 20.3, "payout": 36.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 24.9, "np_cagr3": -39.3, "rev_yoy": 73.5, "np_yoy": 580.7, "np_vol": 1009.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 66.9, "fwd_pe2": 26.2, "fwd_g1": 138.0, "fwd_g2": 155.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂电铜箔", 83.0], ["电子电路铜箔", 14.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 187.9, "ret_prev2_year": -24.3, "ret_ytd": 139.0, "ret_pivot": 660.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -36.3, "ret_120": 117.6, "ret_250": 112.9, "mdd_250": -62.7, "vol_250": 87.7, "pos_52w": 50.2}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 15, "hard": 51, "bondness": 29}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%,稳定度 1%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%,稳定度 1%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 158.9 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 113%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 88%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -36% / 118%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "德福科技:PE 比行业中位高 123.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点。"]}}