{"F": {"ts_code": "301510.SZ", "name": "固高科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230815", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.11, "pe_ttm": 94.6865, "pb": 7.2972, "dv_ttm": 0.1824, "total_mv": 1096379.3668, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.1, 55.8, 53.7, 46.8, 47.5, 48.7], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.4, 3.5, 4.0, 4.2, 5.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [7.2, 12.2, 7.7, 5.2, 3.8, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 48.7, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.3, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 16.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": 5.7, "rev_yoy": 59.8, "np_yoy": 171.0, "np_vol": 54.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 90.4, "fwd_pe2": 71.3, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 3.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["运动控制核心部件类", 40.0], ["运动控制系统类", 7.0], ["运动控制整机类", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.8, "ret_prev2_year": -27.5, "ret_ytd": -27.5, "ret_pivot": 41.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -14.6, "ret_120": -19.2, "ret_250": -23.3, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 62, "hard": 14, "bondness": 16}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 94.7 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 90.4 倍,次年 71.3 倍,PEG 3.35。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 94.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -15% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "固高科技:PE 比行业中位高 17.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点。"]}}