{"F": {"ts_code": "301508.SZ", "name": "中机认检", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "检测服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.52, "pe_ttm": 34.066, "pb": 2.6683, "dv_ttm": 0.9869, "total_mv": 554360.9104, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.8, 44.7, 42.7, 45.0, 41.3, 43.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 6.4, 7.5, 8.3, 8.8], "np_series": [null, null, 1.2, 1.4, 1.3, 1.5], "roe_series": [12.4, 13.6, 14.4, 10.1, 6.9, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 43.5, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 19.7, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.1, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.67, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 22.3, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 36.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.3, "np_cagr3": 8.9, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": 15.2, "np_vol": 10.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["检测业务", 25.0], ["汽车类检测", 19.0], ["合计特别调整", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.5, "ret_prev2_year": -0.0, "ret_ytd": -20.9, "ret_pivot": -16.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -31.1, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 23.9, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 62, "hard": 61, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.1 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 43.5% 两条都占,但所在行业(社会服务)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.1 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -2% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "中机认检:PE 比行业中位低 2.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点。"]}}