{"F": {"ts_code": "301507.SZ", "name": "民生健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230905", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.44, "pe_ttm": 37.0304, "pb": 2.7524, "dv_ttm": 1.1982, "total_mv": 443553.6736, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.7, 65.7, 60.5, 62.1, 55.8, 51.1], "rev_series": [4.4, 4.9, 5.5, 5.8, 6.4, 7.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.2], "roe_series": [13.0, 14.6, 14.2, 8.3, 6.1, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 60.5, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 14.4, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.9, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 3.3, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 8.15, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.6, "np_cagr3": 14.6, "rev_yoy": 15.8, "np_yoy": 1.2, "np_vol": 12.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 39.5, "fwd_pe2": 28.3, "fwd_g1": -6.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["维生素与矿物质补充剂系列", 42.0], ["合计特别调整", 8.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": -18.2, "ret_pivot": 15.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -35.1, "vol_250": 33.7, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 67, "hard": 43, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.0 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 60.5%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.5%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 8.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.0 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 2% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "民生健康:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}