{"F": {"ts_code": "301501.SZ", "name": "恒鑫生活", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.17, "pe_ttm": 25.9515, "pb": 1.9946, "dv_ttm": 1.2425, "total_mv": 416634.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.6, 27.2, 28.1, 28.6, 26.3, 24.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 10.9, 14.3, 15.9, 18.4], "np_series": [null, null, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2], "roe_series": [7.9, 19.7, 30.4, 29.9, 23.5, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.1, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -7.5, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 23.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.8, "fix_assets": 15.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 5.06, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 22.9, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 19.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 19.2, "np_cagr3": 11.2, "rev_yoy": 7.4, "np_yoy": -50.5, "np_vol": 78.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 17.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["可降解产品", 24.0], ["不可降解产品", 24.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -35.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": -28.0, "ret_250": -54.4, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 50.6}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 51, "hard": 86, "bondness": 17}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.0 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%、固定资产占比 54%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 5.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.0 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -54%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 8% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "恒鑫生活:PE 比行业中位低 2.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.2个百分点。"]}}