{"F": {"ts_code": "301498.SZ", "name": "乖宝宠物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "宠物食品", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20230816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.28, "pe_ttm": 32.3824, "pb": 3.3606, "dv_ttm": 1.2722, "total_mv": 1573057.5512, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.3, 28.8, 32.6, 36.8, 42.3, 42.5], "rev_series": [20.1, 25.8, 34.0, 43.3, 52.4, 67.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.4, 2.7, 4.3, 6.2, 6.7], "roe_series": [9.2, 10.0, 16.5, 15.8, 16.0, 15.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 70.9, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 36.8, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.0, "fix_assets": 19.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 5.47, "interest_debt": 11.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 31.4, "debt_mv": 7.6, "payout": 29.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 25.8, "np_cagr3": 36.1, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": -49.6, "np_vol": 28.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 27, "fwd_pe": 26.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.7, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主粮", 33.0], ["零食", 16.0], ["保健品及用品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.3, "ret_prev2_year": 100.8, "ret_ytd": -39.5, "ret_pivot": -18.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -32.2, "ret_250": -59.3, "mdd_250": -62.9, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 39.4}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 58, "hard": 46, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.4 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.8%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 5.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -59%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -3% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "乖宝宠物:PE 比行业中位低 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}