{"F": {"ts_code": "301489.SZ", "name": "思泉新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20231024", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 131.0, "pe_ttm": 240.4312, "pb": 14.0169, "dv_ttm": 0.0795, "total_mv": 1523447.47, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.7, 27.6, 25.8, 25.1, 24.8, 27.0], "rev_series": [3.0, 4.5, 4.2, 4.3, 6.6, 9.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [21.9, 17.3, 15.4, 7.8, 5.2, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.0, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 14.02, "capex_dep": 4.3, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 34.5, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 21.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 30.0, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": 35.0, "np_yoy": 10.2, "np_vol": 7.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 37.5, "fwd_pe2": 17.9, "fwd_g1": 541.0, "fwd_g2": 110.0, "peg": 0.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["热管理材料", 39.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["销售材料、废品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 310.7, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": -7.8, "ret_pivot": 353.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.8, "ret_60": -5.9, "ret_120": 2.9, "ret_250": -3.9, "mdd_250": -57.6, "vol_250": 89.5, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 59, "bondness": 10}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 240.4 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 4.30 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 240.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / -6% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "思泉新材:PE 比行业中位高 146.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点。"]}}